Intel Adjusts WiMAX Plans to Coincide with Sprint 2008 Launch

By: Jeff Orr, Senior Analyst, Consumer Electronics, Maravedis
(Business News & Technology News, 24 Jul 2008)

The only surprise at last week's Intel Centrino 2 processor launch was the delayed availability of the company's Echo Peak WiMAX module paired with the new processor family. The fifth-generation Centrino platform (codenamed Montevina during development and renamed "Centrino 2" for production) had already slipped from a June launch at Computex Taiwan to a mid-July unveiling due to graphics and regulatory paperwork snafus. Intel representatives stated that WiMAX support would emerge later in the year to coincide with the availability of mobile WiMAX services from U.S. operators Clearwire and Sprint Nextel.

The WiMAX module delay is the latest hiccup in Intel's plans for WiMAX to enjoy the attach rate that Wi-Fi received from the original Centrino program. Glitches in Montevina's on-board graphics chipset and paperwork errors in the regulatory filings for wireless antennas with the FCC and Industry Canada pushed out the Centrino 2 launch. Sprint compounded the WiMAX delay in April when it announced that the XOHM service launch using WiMAX technologies wouldn't occur until later in the year. The XOHM program has been reset for September amid the formation of a partnership with Craig McCaw's Clearwire, Google, Intel and multiple cable operators to launch a nationwide mobile broadband network in advance of 3GPP's Long Term Evolution by AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Alltel.

As a result of the Intel delay, the market for Montevina-based laptops in 2008 will be limited to U.S. subscribers in Baltimore Maryland (Sprint), Chicago Illinois (Sprint), Portland Oregon (Clearwire) and Washington D.C. (Sprint). Sprint estimates that Baltimore will be its first commercial market in September, while Chicago and Washington D.C. will follow by the end of the year. Similarly, Clearwire expects Portland to come online before year-end. As Sprint experienced WiMAX doubts earlier in the year amid declining cellular subscribers and a change in top leadership, Intel downplayed the operator's importance. Several hundred operators are planning mobile WiMAX services, though Sprint was getting a disproportionate amount of media attention. The tipping point for Intel to jump into product delivery now appears to hinge on the troubled carrier.

Approximately 17 percent of global broadband deployments have occurred in the 2.5GHz frequency band, according to the WiMAXCounts service for Q1'2008. The majority of new spectrum allocations is occurring in the 2.5GHz to 2.7GHz range. This frequency range is considered the sweet spot for mobile WiMAX networks and received ITU approval late last year as an official IMT-Advanced band for future mobile broadband services. Most of the 2.5GHz networks remain in the planning and infrastructure build-out phase.

The largest mobile WiMAX networks—those based on the IEEE 802.16e-2005 standard—are 145,000 subscribers for KT in South Korea and 10,000 subscribers for Wateen in Pakistan. Neither network uses 2.5GHz spectrum. South Korea's WiBro service runs at 2.3GHz while Wateen's service uses 3.5GHz. Intel is uncommitted to the 2.3GHz and 3.5GHz bands with its Echo Peak. Echo Peak is tuned specifically to 2.5GHz to 2.7GHz operation, limiting the markets where it can be applied. Countries with existing 2.5GHz operators offering BWA/WiMAX besides the United States include: Brazil, India, Ireland, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Venezuela. Those markets will eventually grow the business case for the Intel module, but they are not a consideration for accelerating Echo Peak's availability.

A possible bright spot for Intel is that the Echo Peak module has already achieved WiMAX Forum certification. Completed in July, the module passed conformance and interoperability testing. An Echo Peak demonstration during the Computex Taiwan trade show used the Asus M51VA laptop. More announcements of Echo Peak support are anticipated as Intel commits to delivery and its ODM partners ramp production. A September launch could also bode well for a market clamoring to see if mobile WiMAX delivers on its promise for mobile broadband. Chicago, a late 2008 Sprint city, will host the annual WiMAX World USA conference at the end of September and Sprint is promising that the Baltimore launch will really happen this time.

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