FMC Subscriber Race: Voice over Wi-Fi Dual-Mode First Out of the Gate, but Femtocells Ahead at the Post

(Top News, 13 Jun 2007)

Mobile operators are now making key and far-ranging decisions about the future of their consumer fixed-mobile convergence services. While enterprise FMC services are clearly following the route of VCC- and SIP-enabled solutions, consumer FMC services will take one of two major paths, based on each mobile operator's view of the market, and the nature of its existing network assets.

"Today, consumer FMC services that are based on Wi-Fi use UMA to manage the connection choice and handover between Wi-Fi and cellular networks. These services are ramping up quickly in Europe, due to intense competition between Orange, BT, and other mobile operators. In North America, T-Mobile USA is about to go nationwide with its UMA-based FMC service as well," said ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis.

"However, mobile operators such as Vodafone, SFR, Softbank, and Sprint are at the leading edge among carriers exploring femtocell technologies. With their ability to work with any handset, and their potential for encouraging high data use, femtocells are very attractive when compared to VCC and UMA-based Wi-Fi services," said research director Stuart Carlaw.

The accompanying chart illustrates how femtocells and dual-mode services will evolve in terms of subscriber numbers over time.

Although there are technical advantages and disadvantages associated with dual-mode and femtocell approaches, an equally important consideration will be the shape of an operator¡¯s overall business. For T-Mobile and Orange it makes sense for them to leverage current public Wi-Fi network investments by adopting a dual-mode approach; but other carriers will see femtocells as an opportunity to differentiate themselves in highly competitive markets.

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