Who Will Rule 4G

By: STEPHEN LAS MARIAS, EDITOR
( 1 Mar 2007 )

During the ITU Telecom World in Hong Kong last December and the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this January, we saw the "hype" turning into somewhat a battle for supremacy in the next-generation technology in wireless as mobile WiMAX, Super 3G, the Ultra- Mobile Broadband (UMB) each boast numerous advantages in download speeds and latency in mobile and fixed environment, spectrum utilization, and power management and efficiency.

The "ultimate wireless technology" is such a heavy tagline for a technology which is yet to prove itself in face of interoperability and standardization issues, cost of deployment, significant services offered, and areas covered. Will there really emerge as the supreme technology in this diverse wireless world? With the continuing developments in standards and the emergence of new technologies, it is hard to see which will offer the greatest value proposition in the most cost-effective way; because what is important, in the consumers' perspectives, are the services that these technologies will enable, irregardless of their differences with oneanother.

WiMAX
This year will be very exciting for WiMAX. Based on the IEEE 802.16e standard, the wireless broadband technology, which has been getting the spotlight last year for its optimistic forecasts and the ever present cons because of its infancy, has been gaining momentum as major telecom companies continue to embrace the technology. Late in December, Motorola has announced agreements with Sprint-Nextel and Clearwire in the United States; Wateen Telecom in Pakistan;and Agni Systems in Bangladesh, for WiMAX systems.

One of the largest holders of 2.5GHz spectrum in the United States, Sprint- Nextel, for its part, has announced its aim to become the first nationwide WiMAX provider in the U.S. The company, which will be investing $3 billion for its WiMAX deployment, has already signed an equipment supply deal with Samsung. If Sprint-Nextel sticks with its schedule, we will be seeing the roll-outof mobile WiMAX late this year.

Samsung, in its second annual Mobile Summit in New York, also planted itsposition as to the future of wireless in claiming that 4G is WiMAX.

Foreseen to be the cheaper alternative to the 3G, WiMAX is seeing rapid deployments all over Asia. In India, telecom company BSNL has highlighted six initial cities wherein it will roll out carrier-grade, WiMAX Forum-certified equipment from Aperto Networks: Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, and Pune. The deployment will also cover four rural districts in theState of Haryana.

Meanwhile, under the Mobile-Taiwan (M-Taiwan) project—the Taiwan government's initiative to create a mobile “Ubiquitous Network” and provide eservices throughout the island—Chunghwa Telecom, in association with Nortel and eASPNet, has built a mobile WiMAX network in the northeastern county of Yilan. The network is set to be the first fully integrated broadband wireless network driven by a local government. In addition to that, Alvarion and Accton Technology have formed a joint venture—Accton Wireless Broadband—todevelop mass market WiMAX consumer electronic devices in Taiwan.

Mobile WiMAX deployments are likewise picking up in the Middle East, inparticular Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Despite the opportunity to expand in China's large market for fixed,portable, and mobile broadband access, WiMAX is seeing competition with the country's home-grown 3G technology—the Time Division-Synchronous CodeDivision Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA). However, as the Chinese governmentagain delayed its TD-SCDMA deployment and issuance of licenses until thefirst quarter of 2008, we will be seeing a shed of WiMAX in the region'swireless market with China Netcom, which deployed WiMAX for fixed wirelessaccess in Guangdong province early last year with a service aimed at SMEs andthe residential market.

Super 3G
In an answer to the emergence of new broadband wireless technologies, the 3G Long Term Evolution (3G LTE) is expected to enhance the existing 3G networks. Dubbed Super 3G, the technology aims to achieve a peak downlink data rate of 100Mbps—a three to five times increase in capacity as compared tothe existing HSPA with latency as low as 20ms.

It is important to note, however, that companies that have opted for 3G still have not gotten back the return on their heavy investments during their upgrade to the technology. And as these companies will definitely stick to this technology for quite some time, it is important that 3G LTE will deliver on its promises on time and must be really inexpensive if it is to get head-to-head withother technologies such as WiMAX.

UMB
Promising data rates of up to 280Mbps in mobile environment, the UMB standard, also known technically as the CDMA 1xEV-DO Rev. C, is expected to be published early in the second quarter of this year, and become commercially available on a global basis in early 2009. According to the CDMA Development Group, data rates would stay consistent throughout the entire footprint unlike some technologies which degrade in throughput in fringe coverage areas. The supporters of UMB say that the technology could be CDMA's ticket to finallybreaking the stranglehold that GSM has on mobile technology.

Who will rule 4G?
So who will conquer 4G? It's hard to tell. It is inevitable that these technologies will come out—2G, 2.5G, 3G, WiMAX, UMB. Developments will continue, and the consumers will really not care whatever technologies they are accessing, as long as they get what they are expecting and in the cheapest package possible. We will get there, and these technologies, no matter how different in their technicalities, will eventually coexist to provide the seamless services requiredby the users.

Hence the challenge goes to the designers as to how make the wireless space still interconnected with the different standards working interoperably and seamlessly, without latencies, and with more radios in the continually shrinkingform factors of devices.

WDD China
According to Ovum, an analyst and consulting company, the 437 million and growing mobile phone users in China undeniably make it the world's most promising market for wireless value-added services. The dynamic and robust growth of the market in the years ahead, as well as the developments of different wireless broadband access technologies in the region is also significant for us aswe launch Wireless Development and Design China this month.

Also available bimonthly, WDD China will provide information on design and technological developments in the region's wireless industry, as well as provide designers the latest developments from their counterparts in other partsof the world.